Three-Point Estimate Calculator
Advanced three-point estimation with PERT, triangular distribution, and risk analysis
PERT, Triangular, Weighted estimates
Uncertainty and range assessment
Statistical probability ranges
Project duration forecasting
Three-Point Estimation Parameters
Simple average with equal weight
Task Estimates
Minimum time if everything goes perfectly
Most realistic estimate under normal conditions
Maximum time if significant issues occur
Minimum time if everything goes perfectly
Most realistic estimate under normal conditions
Maximum time if significant issues occur
Minimum time if everything goes perfectly
Most realistic estimate under normal conditions
Maximum time if significant issues occur
Minimum time if everything goes perfectly
Most realistic estimate under normal conditions
Maximum time if significant issues occur
Minimum time if everything goes perfectly
Most realistic estimate under normal conditions
Maximum time if significant issues occur
Understanding Three-Point Estimation
Estimation Methods
Triangular Distribution
Simple average of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. Good for quick estimates when you have limited historical data and want equal weight for all scenarios.
PERT Beta Distribution
Gives 4x weight to the most likely estimate, reflecting the beta distribution's emphasis on the mode. Most commonly used in project management and recommended by PMI.
Weighted Average
Provides moderate weight (3x) to the most likely estimate. A balance between triangular and PERT methods, useful when you want to emphasize the most likely but not as strongly as PERT.
Best Practices
Estimation Guidelines
• Use historical data when available for more accurate estimates
• Involve multiple team members in the estimation process
• Document assumptions and constraints for each estimate
• Consider similar past projects as reference points
Risk Considerations
Larger ranges between optimistic and pessimistic estimates indicate higher uncertainty. Use standard deviation as a risk indicator and plan appropriate contingency buffers based on project complexity.
Continuous Improvement
Compare estimates with actual completion times to improve estimation accuracy. Track estimation performance and adjust techniques based on project outcomes and lessons learned.